Program Overview

Background and Long-Term Strategy

Understanding of anthropogenic (man-made) warming and cooling influences on climate has improved over the last decade. There is now a very high confidence that human activities since 1750 have had a warming effect globally (Summary for Policy Makers, Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change WG1 Fourth Assessment Report February 2007).

Climate change poses challenges for all sectors in the Australian economy and particularly for agriculture with its dependence on natural resources. There may also be opportunities resulting from climate change such as growth of new agricultural industries and mitigation of options through a new national Emissions Trading Scheme.

Over a decade of R&D investment has occurred in the area of climate variability, most recently through the Managing Climate Variability Program (MCVP - Phase One), where Land & Water Australia (LWA) is managing agent on behalf of a consortium of RDCs, including RIRDC, and prior to that through another joint RDC program.

The emphasis in the MCVP is now on 60-90 day seasonal forecasting and prediction of climate events of relevance to farmers, not on climate change per se. The MCVP - Phase One collaborative and co-investment arrangements ceased July 2007. A new science plan for investment starting in 2007-08 has been developed by LWA, with a strong focus on research to improve seasonal forecasting. Collaborative projects have been developed, or are being scoped, for South West Western Australia, Northern Australia to the Tropic of Capricorn, Eastern Australia and SEACI dealing with Southern Australia.

There is some investment in communication and an Innovations Call will be held to determine other approaches outside of the commissioned work. The Bureau of Meteorology will be the preferred site for all climate forecasting information.

Key elements of the MCVP program going forward include the following:

For the science investment to deliver to the timeframes of investment decisions related to Australia's variable and changing climate it must have the following characteristics:

• Improve Seasonal Forecasting Skill - Build on current forecasting systems and emerging modelling technology to improve seasonal forecasting capability
• Improving Seasonal Forecasting Value - providing seasonal forecasts at times and using products that assist producers in climate risk management
• Outline Impacts & Adaptations to Changing Climate - Provide scenarios of climate characteristics and variability in forms that support decisions for the timeframes of action
• Deliver Client Specific Decision Support Tools - Build on both seasonal forecasting and scenarios of climate change with decision support tools that identify investment opportunities and constraints across each of the three timeframes
• Foster Understanding and Uptake - Recognising the rapidly increasing knowledge on climate change and its implications, identify and promote opportunities for adoption of this improved knowledge, often building on the common understanding of Australia's variable climate
  

Key long term strategies

Climate change policy is a key policy initiative of the Australian Government. The National Agriculture and Climate Change Action Plan 2006-2009 is being reviewed by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.  The four areas identified in this document are:

• adaptation strategies to build resilience into agricultural systems
• mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• research and development to enhance the agricultural sector's capacity to respond to climate change
• awareness and communication to inform decision making by primary producers and rural communities

Managing Climate Variability Program (MCVP): Climate Variability and predicting seasonal rainfall has been a key strategy of the current MCVP program and preceding programs. The Managing Climate Variability Program Phase 1 goals and sub-goals typify the recent directions of the Program:

• to increase the capacity of Australia to capture opportunities and manage risks related to climate variability
• increased Adoption (Regions and Industries)
• increased Adoption (Natural Resources Management)
• improved season climate forecasts.

The new plan for Phase 2 will have greater emphasis and investment in seasonal forecasting skill and reliability.

Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries (CCRSPI): The RDCs identified the need for a coordinated approach to climate change work and set up a project, CCRSPI, to coordinate planning in this arena. The new cross RDC consortium on Climate Change has conducted surveys, received written submissions and held a number of workshops to identify needs. The following areas have been identified as areas for collaboration:

• accessing information
• practice change
• seasonal forecasting 
• climate projections
• understanding emissions
• linking policy, industry and science