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Objective
To contribute to the development
of a national consensus on Australia's response to the greenhouse
question.
Background
International and national
actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have important implications
for the future development of the Australian economy.
Research
A study team of Australian
experts on climate change science was established to provide an
independent assessment of an understanding of the nature of the
greenhouse effect and its potential impact.
Outcomes
A natural greenhouse effect
keeps the present average surface temperature of the earth at
15oC, which is some tens of degrees warmer than would
be expected if there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Calculation of future emissions
of carbon dioxide based on a range of scenarios suggests that
a concentration of double pre-industrial levels will occur by
2100. Calculations based on global climate models suggest that
the enhanced greenhouse effect will cause a measurable and identifiable
rise of between 1.5 and 4.5oC in the average surface
temperature of the earth during the next century.
Observations of past climates
show that major variations have occurred during the earth's history.
There has been an increase in global average surface temperature
of between 0.3 and 0.6oC in the past 100 years. Airborne
particles from fossil-fuel burning, other industrial sources and
biomass may mask part of the warming predicted from increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations.
Studies show that increased
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes stimulation of photosynthesis
in plants and more efficient use of water, leading to increased
plant growth. Changes in climate will have significant effects
on natural ecosystems but detailed understanding of these effects
is lacking. The projected increased in temperature could lead
to an average rise in sea level of up to 50 centimetres in the
next century.
Overall, Australia's contribution
to greenhouse gas emissions is around 1.5 per cent of the world
total. Its emissions per unit of gross domestic product are,
however, higher than those of other OECD countries and are growing
at a greater rate. There are many uncertainties in the projection
of future trends in climate changes caused by the enhanced greenhouse
effect.
Implications
Continued research and monitoring
are needed to improve understanding, prediction and detection
of climate change. There should be increased emphasis on the
development of methodologies for linking advances in climate change
science to the ability to evaluate impacts and adaptation and
mitigation strategies.
RIRDC Project No: ATF-1A
ORGANISATION: Australian Academy of Technological Science and Engineering
PO Box 355
CARLTON SOUTH VIC 3053
PHONE: 03 347 0622
FAX: 03 347 8237
PUBLICATION:
Steering Committee of the
Climate Change Study, 1995. "Climate Change Science: Current
Understanding and Uncertainties". Victoria.
Last updated: 10 October 1996
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Index of RIRDC Projects URL
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