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Market access under the Doha Round by
Andrew Stoeckel, Centre for International Economics, Canberra and Sydney
February 2005
RIRDC Publication No W05/029 RIRDC Project No CIE-13A
The criteria for a successful outcome from the Doha Round should be how close average tariffs (and tariff quota equivalents) and their dispersion for agriculture converge to those of other manufactured goods over the decade following the completion of talks. There is virtually no chance that the current ‘blended formula’ for removing barriers at the border will lead to a meaningful reduction of average tariffs and the dispersion of tariffs. Indeed, there is a chance that the dispersion of tariffs (and hence economic costs) could worsen.
Complicated formulae such as the ‘blended formula’ are potentially deceitful devices to conceal the lack of meaningful progress and obviate the need for policymakers to face up to hard decisions. If countries do not want to liberalise, they won’t, and no formula will get around that fact. Real progress can only come from changing political will and the best way to change that is by open, independent and transparent economywide analysis that identifies the economic benefits and costs for all stakeholders from agricultural trade liberalisation.
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