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Executive Summary
The Wildflower Industry has been growing mainly due to the increasing demand for wildflowers in Australia’s export markets.  In the mid 1990’s wildflower exports were predicted to increase significantly, but during the late 1990’s, exports did not increase as fast as expected. Exporters were receiving orders for wildflowers, which they could not fill, as there were not enough plants of the crops in demand in cultivation.

During the mid 1990’s wildflower growers were receiving indications that the industry was growing, but they did not always know which crops they should plant. The large number of types of wildflowers causes a dilemma for growers planning for the future.  Demand for individual crops is not clear and there are no market statistics for the majority of species or cultivars of wildflowers.

Since 1997 the Victorian Best Bets program has provided important information on crops with a current export market demand, and has been a useful tool for growers in planning future crops for the export flower industry. The program has enabled exporters to collectively list crops for which they were receiving orders that could not be filled as there were not enough flowers available. The lists were supplied as an indication of the situation at the time of the analysis, with no guarantee of the situation when the plants are mature.

As flower sales are at the mercy of fads and fashion, the Best Bet analysis needs to be updated regularly to determine which cut flowers are currently in demand.

Objectives
The objective of the project has been to improve the profitability and productivity of the wildflower industry by expanding the Victorian “Best Bets” program to include exporters around Australia. This has included details on the flowers that the markets want and are undersupplied, the areas where they are suitable to grow in Queensland and nurseries where they can be obtained.

Best Bets Analysis
An analysis was conducted to determine a list of the Best Bets crops for export markets, modified from a format used previously in Victoria.

This analysis was conducted using the main exporters relevant to Queensland growers, accounting for over 80% of the flowers exported from Queensland. These companies are located in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria, consequently the results of the analysis will also be important for growers in other states who use these export companies.

The analysis was done individually with each export company. They were asked to list crops that were currently in demand and under supplied, or for which they anticipated a future demand.  They were also asked for comments on each of the crops, and if relevant, details such as, species, colour, time or other characteristics of the cut flowers.

Each exporter scored each crop on 6 rating scales for their business. Scales were used so that the scoring was comparable between businesses. The lists were then combined to provide an overall view.

The Best Bets Analysis produced a list of cut flowers crops for which there is unsatisfied demand.  Increased production of these cut flowers is required in order to satisfy the current or predicted demand. For these cut flower crops the analysis has also looked at their current price, any expected price change, their postharvest efficiency and cost, and any State to State differences in demands.

The results of the analysis were published as a separate report or publication so that the information is readily available and can be widely distributed. This document is “The Australian export best bets analysis” (Slater, 2002), and is included as Appendix 1. The list of all the best bets crops has also been provided in a Table ranked for likely future demand (Table 1, p9).

There are no guaranteed winners!!!
No one can suggest that they can foresee the future, and the participants in the analysis all emphasised this point.  Consequently the crops decided from this analysis should not be considered as guaranteed winners.  However, all sectors of the flower industry can benefit from collectively predicting which flowers will be in demand in the next few years.

Best Bets Crop Suitability in Queensland and Crop Availability
Information has also been produced to aid Queensland growers in increasing plantations of these crops to meet the market demands identified in the Best Bets Analysis (Table 2, p12).  This information includes which of the 15 pastoral districts in Queensland that the Best Bets plants are suitable for. A list of nurseries that supply the plants is also included in the report (Table 3, p29).

Implications
As there is a large range of cut flower crops, the lack of market information on individual crops can limit an increase in their production to satisfy current demand, as growers may not know that their supply can be increased. This analysis has produced a list of cut flower crops for which there is unsatisfied demand.  Increased production of these cut flowers is required to satisfy the current or predicted demand. This increased production will have an effect on the future price for the cut flowers and growers need to examine the economics of producing these crops on their site to ensure that they will be economically viable.

This work has produced information on areas these crops are suited for in Queensland, and a list of nurseries where plants are available. The lack of information on crops and how to manage them can be a significant barrier for some growers, and this information will help to overcome these barriers. The information provided will enable a more in depth investigation and assessment of prospective crops for particular districts and individual sites.

The Queensland investigation has highlighted the need for greater precision in predicting the likely distribution of new cut flower crops.  It points to the need for additional work on modelling likely growing areas within defined geographic boundaries and the development of decision support systems for growers of new flower (or other) crops.

As all sectors of the industry need to be profitable, the Best Bets program is a valuable market research tool to provide information to growers to help expand the industry’s supply base. Growers can use this information to determine if these currently undersupplied crops can be viably and profitably grown on their site.  This will in turn increase the supply of flowers that exporters are receiving orders for, and therefore increase Australia’s flower exports.

If through the Best Bets Analysis some crops are produced in greater numbers, we will have collectively strengthened the export side of the flower industry, and have a successful future based on cooperation and better communication.
 

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Last updated: 2 June 2003
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